No Fans Allowed?

By RIYA SINGH ‘22

The onset of COVID-19 shut down everything about two months ago, and since then, all professional sports leagues have been suspended until further notice. However, as life begins to return to a somewhat normal state, now is the time to start evaluating the new normal of sports. Various commissioners, state officials, and player associations have proposed unique alternatives allowing athletes to continue their seasons in ways that would not compromise the safety of the fans, referees, or players. The most publicized of these is continuing regular-season games without fans. Major League Baseball has announced a proposal for a no-fans start to its season, and the National Football League is currently weighing options that include a no-fans 2020 season. The NFL plans to keep the sport relevant and to "fulfill a television contract that pays most of the bills." 

However, multiple consequences of adopting a no-fan policy present themselves: especially the loss of home advantage. In the 1990s, teams with home advantage in the NFL have won about 60 percent of the time, and last season, the trend was approximately 52 percent. Additionally, in the NFL throughout the 2000s, home-field advantage was worth 2.9 points. Home field advantage will no question be a different factor in games without fans. Studies even show crowds impact the officials. According to CBS Sports writer Johnathan Jones, "Studies are almost unanimous that crowds have a substantial and identifiable effect on calls made for the home team and against the visitors." Indeed, Tobias Moskowitz, professor at Yale's School of Business and co-author of Scorecasting, (a 2010 book studying the impact of officials on home-field advantage) claims evidence suggests that the crowd-influenced referees play a distinct role in home-field advantage. The referees are more biased if the home crowd puts pressure on them because an aura of social pressure is created--an aura unreplicable in an empty stadium.

Furthermore, we have all heard the phrase "diamonds are created under pressure." Likewise, great athletes are created under pressure. So what happens when a multitude of that pressure vanishes? Mark Frank, the chairman of the University of Buffalo's department of communication, says, "the general rule in humans is the presence of an audience improves the performance of the simple, well-known tasks." However, professional sports are definitely not simple, well-known tasks, so whether the games will improve without fans is undetermined. Analytics from Scorecasting showed that home crowds do not impact player performance. "Free-throw percentage across 23,000 NBA games was an identical 75.9% for the home and away teams. Away NHL teams won slightly more shootouts than the home team. Punts and field goals in the NFL were identical." However, these statistics and hypotheses are not exact because empty stadiums have never held games. A referee who has officiated both Super Bowls and scrimmages claimed that you "cannot simulate an NFL football game without the fans" because "mentally you're in a different place." We do not know how the emptiness and silence of an empty stadium will affect the players; however, the lack of an in-person audience most certainly will not affect everyone similarly. Those who have learned to prosper under pressure may take time to adjust, while those who have choked in the past may experience the peaks of their career in this setting. Nonetheless, although everything is hypothetical for the moment, we do know that the stereotypical culture of sport in America may begin to shift soon.