Herd Immunity: Is it Worth it?

By NEHA MODAK ‘22

While the international community has approached COVID-19 by enforcing lockdowns, increasing testing, and closing the economy, Sweden’s leaders have taken a different approach. According to Forbes on May 23 2020, they believe that the government can’t do much to suppress the virus until an approved test becomes available to the general population. Therefore, they have tried to keep day-to-day life in Sweden relatively normal. Children under sixteen still attend school; bars, restaurants, and gyms remain open. In fact, the only enforceable action Sweden has taken is banning public gatherings of over fifty people. Otherwise, the country released guidelines on washing hands, distancing, and travel, but simply as recommendations. People may refuse practicing a lockdown or social distancing, so the virus is allowed to travel somewhat freely. While the Swedish government holds that herd immunity is not intentional, it is a byproduct of Sweden’s strategy. By allowing the virus to spread, Sweden has accepted that a large sector of its population will contract COVID-19. Many Swedish officials and health professionals hope that this high rate of infection will lead to herd immunity. However, herd immunity is a controversial strategy and has massive consequences.

Herd immunity occurs when a large percentage of a population has been infected with a virus. In the strategy, everyone that recovers will have the antibodies to fight the virus and therefore become immune. Since such a large sector of the population will have immunity, the virus cannot spread, and the entire community will be mostly virus free. However, from the beginning, the strategy of herd immunity has a few issues. Firstly, as CBS News pointed out on May 7, the body creates many antibodies to fight a virus, but not all of these antibodies can neutralize it. On April 19, Dr. Deborah Birx confirmed that having antibodies and having immunity are different. While some people who have been exposed to the virus can gain effective antibodies, immunity is not a guarantee for every person. Therefore, when considering herd immunity, leaders are assuming something-- that exposure to the virus creates immunity-- that is not a proven fact. Additionally, the time frame during which an individual could have unconfirmed immunity is unclear. Even if exposure to COVID-19 does lead to immunity, it likely won’t last forever. If the time frame is too short, herd immunity may not work.

 Even if leaders ignore these factors and assume that herd immunity is possible, the strategy has unimaginable consequences. According to Al Jazeera on March 25, 2020, sixty percent of a population must be infected for herd immunity to work. If sixty percent of people get coronavirus, thousands will die. In fact, Business Insider reported on May 22 that Sweden has the extremely high coronavirus death rate of 12%. If sixty percent of Sweden's 10.23 million residents contract the virus and twelve percent of those people die, 736,360 people will die of COVID-19. That is more than the population of Boston. Even in the United States, where only 0.5% of the population has been infected, the death toll is above 100,000. If sixty percent of the US population gets infected, the death count would be incredible.

Without a vaccine, many countries are considering herd immunity as a serious option to combat the virus. But we cannot ignore the serious problems with herd immunity— for one, the uncertainties around antibodies call into question its viability. And even if possible, herd immunity would result in a massive amount of deaths. Countries must think twice before employing herd immunity as their primary strategy for battling coronavirus.