Why Trump Will Win The 2020 Presidential Election

Image courtesy of Business Insider

By KAYLA MATHIEU ‘21

I would like to preface this article by saying I am not, by any means, a Trump supporter. Being one would mean supporting ideals that contradict anything of value to people who don’t identify as rich and white. As a black female, I am writing this article as an informative piece that hopefully wakes people up to the possibility of another four years of the toxic climate that we have endured since 2016. While I and many others would love to ignore the realities of Trump’s potential 8 year presidency, it is important for us to note all the empirical data pointing towards a 2020 victory. 

The first factor one must consider is the condition of the economy. According to CNBC, when it comes down to it, people care about their pocketbooks and in that department, Trump has maintained an economy from which they can benefit. If voters were to vote only on the basis of their pocketbooks, Trump would win by a landslide. 

While it is evident through all the bumper stickers, hats, other paraphernalia that read “Make America Great Again,” and growing white nationalist sentiment that Trump has many overt supporters, the covert supporters will be an even greater factor in the upcoming election; this factor is prevalent on our own campus. From my experience, while our campus appears very liberal leaning, the amount of covert Trump supporters would shock many in the community. This covert support allows for Trump to seem unpopular while making decisive wins in the polls.

Nate Silver is widely recognized as one of the most accurate election analysts of the 21st century. His election predictions gained popularity in 2012 when he correctly predicted the results of all state primaries and the presidential winner in 49 of the 50 states. Despite his flop predicting the 2016 presidential election, his predictions for the 2020 election are still trusted by many. Silver states that Trump’s impeachment process will continue to draw media attention away from less popular Democratic candidates. A lack of media attention toward Democrats leads to a lack of excitement among Democratic voters. The result is a smaller turnout of voters on the Democratic side, complementing Trump’s deceiving unpopularity to create unexpected results.

Additionally, the electoral college, in the same manner that it was in 2016, will prove to be of great benefit to Trump in 2020. According to NBC news, “Trump could win 5 million fewer votes than his opponent — and still win a second term.” Because the president ultimately is elected directly by the electoral college and not the popular vote, large states do not carry as great a weight as they would if the popular vote directly elected the president. For example, California and Texas are the two most populous states in the U.S.,  yet the left-leaning California will not have as great of an effect on the overall outcome of the election as it would if the president won by majority popular vote. This could potentially render many Democratic votes null and void. 

I hope 2020 voters will prove me wrong, but based on merely the facts, it is my opinion that Trump will be near impossible to beat in the race to the White House.