Covid, Again?

BY MAX DONOVAN ‘25

Over the past two months, Covid cases have dramatically risen and fallen. In the last two weeks of May, an outbreak that was largely confined to the Northeastern states of the U.S spread to other regions, causing the seven day U.S average of COVID cases to rise above 100,000 for the first time since mid-February. As of the week of June 6th, the daily average cases in Massachusetts is about 2,196 according to the New York Times—a relatively low average. While this number is nowhere close to the peak of the Omicron surge, when 28,000 cases were being reported daily, cases are increasing in select regions. However, reported cases as a whole in the United States have begun to decrease.

The select regions in which cases are rising are the same regions in which wastewater levels are high. Wastewater indicates the amount of Covid present in the community; it is the water from metropolitan sewers and other drainage systems that is routinely tested for Covid content. Wastewater can reveal accurate results and also predict the incoming cases. Confirmed cases usually lag several days after Covid wastewater levels increase or decrease, depicting a more accurate indication of the true infection rates. While Covid concentration in wastewater decreased slightly during school vacation week in late April, likely due to the influx of families going on vacation, it quickly increased again days later.

This increase in Covid hit Milton Academy hard, too. The virus has now dug deep into our community so that most people have infected friends or loved ones. In fact, the cases rose so high in our community that the Health and Safety Board issued a strong recommendation for the use of masks in indoor areas.

The rising cases are fueled by a new Omicron sub-variant, as well as by the growing complacency of the general public. According to the CDC data released on the week of May 23rd, the BA.2.12.1 variant now accounts for the majority of cases in New England and is 27% more contagious than the previous sub-variant, BA.2. Complacency amongst the public also contributes to this large uptick in cases, as most people do not view Covid as a substantial threat anymore. In an April 2022 Gallup poll on what voters think of as the greatest issues, only 4% answered Covid and diseases. Mask wearing is down to almost an all-time low, and the last standing federal mask mandate on public transit was struck down by a federal judge on April 18.

Nevertheless, the latest surge within certain areas also carries some positive news: hospitalizations and deaths are not up by nearly as much as they were in previous waves, likely due to the large amount of previous immunity acquired by the population during the first Omicron surge. According to The New York Times, in Massachusetts, 99% of eligible people have gotten at least one dose of a Covid vaccine. This high rate greatly slows the threat of severe disease and death from Covid. With vaccines and treatments such as the Pfizer pill and Paxlovid, oral medicines which can decrease a patient’s symptoms and eliminate the need for hospitalization, Covid is slowly starting to become a common virus, such as the flu, which transmits through the population without notoriety. In fact, even though cases are rising in the U.S, deaths have remained near a pandemic low. Additionally, over the last couple of days, wastewater Covid levels have begun to plateau in the Boston area and cases have decreased by 25% over the past week.

Though developing medicines decrease Covid’s threat, no one should be encouraged to contract the virus in order to gain short-term immunity. Long covid, a condition caused by the lingering effects of Covid in the body, has affected 1 in 4 older adults and up to 1 in 5 younger adults, according to the CDC. Symptoms of long covid “can affect all parts of the body and may include fatigue, shortness of breath, brain fog and blood clots.” Another study published by UCLA predicts that around a third of the nation suffers from long Covid up to a year after the initial infection. Vaccines also seem to have little to no effect against this chronic condition. So, while Covid will likely become another common seasonal virus, it will have more long term consequences on the population than the common cold or influenza.